Odds of Holdem Pre-Flop Hands
Taken from this page:
Big Pairs:
* Big pair versus smaller pair: AA vs KK ----- 80% to 20%
* Big pair versus very small pair: KK vs 55 ----- 80% to 20%
* Big pair versus suited connector: AA vs 78s, 56s, 9Ts ----- ~80% to 20%
* there can be a slide of around a few percent depending on whether or not the two smaller cards are competing for the same straight or flush. Having 78s versus AA is actually better than having KQs versus AA, since the 78s can make a straight without using the Aces. Example: AsAd against 7c8c is 77% to 33% while having AsAd versus KcQc is only 83/17.
* Big pair versus unsuited connector: AA vs 78off ----- ~80% to 20% Still around the same as above... One thing of note is that for competing battles, the offsuit gets hurt even more. For example, if you have AdAh versus KdQh, it isn't 80/20, it is 88% to 12%. The "offsuitedness" combined with the competition for the same straight (A-K-Q-J-T) cripples the KQ. You would much prefer the 65 or 89. Another example is TT versus 56off, it is still 80/20.
* Big pair versus two unsuited smaller cards: AA vs 95 or KK vs J4 ----- ~85% to 15% You get a few percent if the cards can make a straight, if they have a suite that the other doesn't, or if they aren't competiting for the same straights; T-7 has a little better chance, few percent, to beat KK than 72 does.
* Big pair versus two suited smaller cards: AA vs 95s or KK vs J4s ----- ~85% to 15% Again, if you the suite you have isn't in the other player's hand, you get a few more percent: KsKd against Js4s. The spade in the KK hand cripples the Js4s even more. If the cards are even big gappers like 8h4h against KdKs, it gains some because of the straight potentional (even though it isn't a connector): 81% to 19% (favoring the Kings of course).
* Big pair versus unsuited dominated cards: AA vs AK or AA vs AT or KK vs KJ or JJ vs J9 ----- ~90 to 10% The AA vs smaller Ace is especially bad: 92% to 8%. The smaller the pair gets, the better chance it has: 77 vs 75 is 88/12. Jacks and up are all about the same 92 to 8%.
* Big pair versus suited donimated cards: AA vs AKs or AA vs ATs or KK vs KJs or JJ vs J9s ----- ~86% to 14% You get a little more help if your hand can make a straight too, or if the big pair isn't quite as large. The TT vs T7 has a better chance than KK vs KQ does.
Overcards versus pair:
* Two big suited cards versus smaller pair: KQs vs JJ or AKs vs JJ or KJs vs TT ----- 52% to 48% for the pair. It isn't quite a 50/50 because the two big suited cards need to catch one of the other cards to make a straight (which kills a couple percent).
* Two big unsuited cards versus smaller pair: KQ vs JJ or AK vs TT or KJ vs 99 ----- 56% to 44%.
* Two big suited cards versus very small pair (maybe 55 and below): AKs versus 55 or KQs versus 44 or 89s versus 44 ---- 48% to 52% (the lead for the pocket pair). What is interesting is that AKs doesn't do as well against small pocket pairs as a hand like 89s or JTs, which can make more straights. AKs versus 55 will win only 48% of the time, but T9s versus the 55 will win 52% of the time, making it the favorite.
* Two big unsuited cards versus very small pair (maybe 55 and below): AK versus 44 or KQ vs 55 or T8 versus 44 ----- ~48% to 52% (the lead for the pocket pair). What is interesting to note again is the breaking point between what is exactly even money with smaller pocket pair and when it becomes the favorite again. If you have an opponent with 55, if you hold two offsuit cards above his that can make a straight below JT, you are 50/50 to win. As soon as you go to QJ and above, now he is a 52 to 48% favorite. The reason is that the QJ has a harder time making a straight than the T8 or JT do.
Dominated Hands:
* Unsuited versus unsuited dominated hand: AJ vs A9 or KQ vs KT or JT vs J8 ---- ~70% to 30% (give or take a few percent). The higher the cards, the worse off your are if you have a dominated hand: AK vs AJ is 75% to 25% while 98 to 96 is 66% to 33%). Note that also if you have two very small Ace hands, there is around a 5% chance of chopping the pots because the kickers won't play: A5 vs A2 for example, will split the pot some of the time.
* Suited versus suited dominated hand: AsKs vs Ac7c or KsQs vs KhJh or JsTs vs Jh9h ----- ~70% to 30%.
* Unsuited versus suited dominated hand: AKoff vs A7s or KQoff vs KJs etc ----- ~70% to 30% still, the flush possibility for the dominated hand doesn't help that much.
* Suited versus unsuited dominated hand: AKs vs A7off or AKs vs KJoff ----- ~75% to 25% There is a slide of a few percent with the smaller hands like we have seen above: a J9off versus a JTs will do a little better than an A7off will do against an AKs. The reason, again, is that the big cards like AK and KQ can make fewer straights.
Misc:
* these are just some whacky hands...
* K4 vs J9 ----- 56% to 44%
* Q4 vs 72 ----- 64% to 35%
* AK vs 72 ----- 70% to 30%
* 74 vs J3 ----- 42% to 58%
* Q5 vs T8 ----- 56% to 44%
* 98 vs A4 ----- 45% to 55%
* K2 vs 56 ----- 55% vs 45%
What can we learn from looking at these numbers? The first thing that should stand out to you is the fact that holdem is a game of small edges. That is a good thing actually because in this subtlety there is confusion. Without approaching the game using a well-thought-out strategy based on the underlying fundamentals of the game, it is easy to lose yourself, and have no rhyme or reason for what is happening to you each day. You go in and lose sometimes, win sometimes and are content that that is how things go. You can make sense of things if you try. After you spend some real time studying the game, little surprises you anymore. Everything seems predictable and logical. And when you have a realistic perspective of the game, it takes the pressure off and you feel confident when you play. You take your bad beats in stride because you know they can't happen all the time, or enough to make you lose. Secondly, what is important about these numbers is that we see how much of a factor being dominated is. When you compete for the same cards as the person against you who has a slightly better hand, you are a huge underdog. It is much better to play hands that are either ahead of the competitors or if hit a flop will have a strong hand, not middle cards that aren't good at either. Lastly, numbers are important but you can't have a winning strategy based on these only. I wouldn't want anyone to look at this page and think they know how to play now. Odds only come into play when we don't think we already have the winner. And part of good poker is being able to eventually have a sense for when we are on top or not; a chart won't teach you that.
Big Pairs:
* Big pair versus smaller pair: AA vs KK ----- 80% to 20%
* Big pair versus very small pair: KK vs 55 ----- 80% to 20%
* Big pair versus suited connector: AA vs 78s, 56s, 9Ts ----- ~80% to 20%
* there can be a slide of around a few percent depending on whether or not the two smaller cards are competing for the same straight or flush. Having 78s versus AA is actually better than having KQs versus AA, since the 78s can make a straight without using the Aces. Example: AsAd against 7c8c is 77% to 33% while having AsAd versus KcQc is only 83/17.
* Big pair versus unsuited connector: AA vs 78off ----- ~80% to 20% Still around the same as above... One thing of note is that for competing battles, the offsuit gets hurt even more. For example, if you have AdAh versus KdQh, it isn't 80/20, it is 88% to 12%. The "offsuitedness" combined with the competition for the same straight (A-K-Q-J-T) cripples the KQ. You would much prefer the 65 or 89. Another example is TT versus 56off, it is still 80/20.
* Big pair versus two unsuited smaller cards: AA vs 95 or KK vs J4 ----- ~85% to 15% You get a few percent if the cards can make a straight, if they have a suite that the other doesn't, or if they aren't competiting for the same straights; T-7 has a little better chance, few percent, to beat KK than 72 does.
* Big pair versus two suited smaller cards: AA vs 95s or KK vs J4s ----- ~85% to 15% Again, if you the suite you have isn't in the other player's hand, you get a few more percent: KsKd against Js4s. The spade in the KK hand cripples the Js4s even more. If the cards are even big gappers like 8h4h against KdKs, it gains some because of the straight potentional (even though it isn't a connector): 81% to 19% (favoring the Kings of course).
* Big pair versus unsuited dominated cards: AA vs AK or AA vs AT or KK vs KJ or JJ vs J9 ----- ~90 to 10% The AA vs smaller Ace is especially bad: 92% to 8%. The smaller the pair gets, the better chance it has: 77 vs 75 is 88/12. Jacks and up are all about the same 92 to 8%.
* Big pair versus suited donimated cards: AA vs AKs or AA vs ATs or KK vs KJs or JJ vs J9s ----- ~86% to 14% You get a little more help if your hand can make a straight too, or if the big pair isn't quite as large. The TT vs T7 has a better chance than KK vs KQ does.
Overcards versus pair:
* Two big suited cards versus smaller pair: KQs vs JJ or AKs vs JJ or KJs vs TT ----- 52% to 48% for the pair. It isn't quite a 50/50 because the two big suited cards need to catch one of the other cards to make a straight (which kills a couple percent).
* Two big unsuited cards versus smaller pair: KQ vs JJ or AK vs TT or KJ vs 99 ----- 56% to 44%.
* Two big suited cards versus very small pair (maybe 55 and below): AKs versus 55 or KQs versus 44 or 89s versus 44 ---- 48% to 52% (the lead for the pocket pair). What is interesting is that AKs doesn't do as well against small pocket pairs as a hand like 89s or JTs, which can make more straights. AKs versus 55 will win only 48% of the time, but T9s versus the 55 will win 52% of the time, making it the favorite.
* Two big unsuited cards versus very small pair (maybe 55 and below): AK versus 44 or KQ vs 55 or T8 versus 44 ----- ~48% to 52% (the lead for the pocket pair). What is interesting to note again is the breaking point between what is exactly even money with smaller pocket pair and when it becomes the favorite again. If you have an opponent with 55, if you hold two offsuit cards above his that can make a straight below JT, you are 50/50 to win. As soon as you go to QJ and above, now he is a 52 to 48% favorite. The reason is that the QJ has a harder time making a straight than the T8 or JT do.
Dominated Hands:
* Unsuited versus unsuited dominated hand: AJ vs A9 or KQ vs KT or JT vs J8 ---- ~70% to 30% (give or take a few percent). The higher the cards, the worse off your are if you have a dominated hand: AK vs AJ is 75% to 25% while 98 to 96 is 66% to 33%). Note that also if you have two very small Ace hands, there is around a 5% chance of chopping the pots because the kickers won't play: A5 vs A2 for example, will split the pot some of the time.
* Suited versus suited dominated hand: AsKs vs Ac7c or KsQs vs KhJh or JsTs vs Jh9h ----- ~70% to 30%.
* Unsuited versus suited dominated hand: AKoff vs A7s or KQoff vs KJs etc ----- ~70% to 30% still, the flush possibility for the dominated hand doesn't help that much.
* Suited versus unsuited dominated hand: AKs vs A7off or AKs vs KJoff ----- ~75% to 25% There is a slide of a few percent with the smaller hands like we have seen above: a J9off versus a JTs will do a little better than an A7off will do against an AKs. The reason, again, is that the big cards like AK and KQ can make fewer straights.
Misc:
* these are just some whacky hands...
* K4 vs J9 ----- 56% to 44%
* Q4 vs 72 ----- 64% to 35%
* AK vs 72 ----- 70% to 30%
* 74 vs J3 ----- 42% to 58%
* Q5 vs T8 ----- 56% to 44%
* 98 vs A4 ----- 45% to 55%
* K2 vs 56 ----- 55% vs 45%
What can we learn from looking at these numbers? The first thing that should stand out to you is the fact that holdem is a game of small edges. That is a good thing actually because in this subtlety there is confusion. Without approaching the game using a well-thought-out strategy based on the underlying fundamentals of the game, it is easy to lose yourself, and have no rhyme or reason for what is happening to you each day. You go in and lose sometimes, win sometimes and are content that that is how things go. You can make sense of things if you try. After you spend some real time studying the game, little surprises you anymore. Everything seems predictable and logical. And when you have a realistic perspective of the game, it takes the pressure off and you feel confident when you play. You take your bad beats in stride because you know they can't happen all the time, or enough to make you lose. Secondly, what is important about these numbers is that we see how much of a factor being dominated is. When you compete for the same cards as the person against you who has a slightly better hand, you are a huge underdog. It is much better to play hands that are either ahead of the competitors or if hit a flop will have a strong hand, not middle cards that aren't good at either. Lastly, numbers are important but you can't have a winning strategy based on these only. I wouldn't want anyone to look at this page and think they know how to play now. Odds only come into play when we don't think we already have the winner. And part of good poker is being able to eventually have a sense for when we are on top or not; a chart won't teach you that.
posted by Rog at 2:38 AM
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